Key takeaways from our “Forecasting Canada’s Future” webinar
Key takeaways from our “Forecasting Canada’s Future” webinar
In MNP’s “Forecasting Canada’s Future” webinar, advisors Susan Mowbray, Steven Kwasny, and Nancy MacKay unpack the economic shocks, policy shifts, and leadership strategies shaping the road ahead.
Watch the replay and prepare for what’s next.
Canada’s business environment is at a crossroads. In our Forecasting Canada’s Future webinar, three advisors — Susan Mowbray, Steven Kwasny, and Nancy MacKay — shared their perspectives on the economic data, policy landscape, and leadership strategies that will shape the months ahead.
Canada’s economy is at a crossroads
Susan Mowbray, the leader of MNP’s Custom Research and Economics service line, opened with a candid assessment of Canada’s economic fundamentals, describing the current moment as a “critical inflection point” shaped by a series of global shocks: the pandemic, war in Europe, shifting relations with China, and now, disruptive U.S. trade policy.
“I can’t actually think of a time when we’ve had so many of these kinds of shocks, one after another,” she noted.
Canada’s GDP growth has slowed significantly since the pandemic, with recent numbers hovering around one to 1.5 percent annually. Susan explained that the brief uptick in 2024 was largely a result of businesses moving inventories ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs, not a sign of underlying strength. Private sector investment remains weak, and productivity challenges persist.
On the labour front, Susan highlighted that export sectors — like manufacturing, agriculture, and forestry — are losing jobs, while domestic sectors, like retail and finance, are adding positions. Youth unemployment is now over 14 percent, the highest since the 2008 2009 financial crisis.
“If you graduated from a post-secondary program in spring 2025, it’s likely you had a really hard time finding your first job,” she said.
AI is also reshaping the workforce, with businesses using technology to automate entry-level tasks, which reduces hiring for junior roles. Susan cautioned that while AI can boost productivity, it raises questions about long-term skill development, opportunities for young workers, and the next generation of business leaders.
Trade uncertainty remains a major concern. While Canada is seeing some growth in exports to Europe and Asia, volumes are still small compared to trade with the U.S. Susan stressed that government and business must both invest in productivity and training to maintain Canada’s standard of living.
She closed her remarks with three recommendations for business leaders:
Invest in productivity
Focus on upgrading technology, streamlining operations, and eliminating outdated processes. Improving productivity is essential for long-term competitiveness and resilience.
Support workforce development
Prioritize training and opportunities for young people. Addressing youth unemployment and skill gaps will help build a stronger, more adaptable labour force.
Adapt to trade realignment
Diversify markets and supply chains to reduce exposure to U.S. policy shifts. While new trade relationships take time to develop, proactive adaptation will position businesses for future growth.
Watch the Forecasting Canada’s Future webinar recording
Canadian business faces real challenges, but opportunities are emerging
Steven Kwasny, co-lead of MNP’s Public Affairs team and Partner with the firm’s Consulting practice, built on Susan’s analysis. He focused on how business leaders can respond to policy and economic uncertainty. He described the current policy environment as “difficult,” with the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) beginning earlier than expected and adding complexity to trade planning.
Steven pointed out that Canadian businesses often face greater exposure from domestic retaliatory tariffs than from U.S. measures, creating a tough balancing act for policymakers. Housing affordability remains a major challenge, with targets revised downward and multi-level government involvement complicating solutions.
One area of potential opportunity is Canada’s commitment to increase defense and dual-use infrastructure spending. Steven explained this will reshape government procurement and create new avenues for advanced research and manufacturing.
“There’s real potential there,” he said. “But there are lots of questions about how effectively that money will be deployed.”
Despite the challenges, Steven urged business leaders to adopt scenario planning. He recommended mapping out responses to key uncertainties — like tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and policy changes — using simple frameworks.
“Sit down with a page and think, ‘If this, then what would that mean for our company?’” he advised.
He also emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making, encouraging leaders to use financial modelling and sensitivity analysis to understand the impact of external shocks on their margins and operations.
Business leaders can adapt and embrace resiliency
Nancy MacKay, founder and CEO of MacKay CEO Forums, brought the conversation back to the human side of leadership. Drawing on her experience with Canadian CEOs, she described the pressures executives face: tariffs, recession fears, AI disruption, and the challenge of performing under pressure.
Many leaders, she said, are struggling with missed targets and team burnout.
She shared three key strategies for resilience:
Stay above the line
First, she encouraged leaders to “stay above the line” — maintaining a positive, solution-focused mindset even in the face of setbacks.
“If you knew you couldn’t fail, what would you do?” she asked, challenging leaders to reframe their approach.
Prioritize mental fitness
Second, Nancy advocated for daily investment in mental fitness, recommending tools like Positive Intelligence (and its PQ Reps) to reduce stress and improve clarity.
“If you want to be unstoppable and really have a winning mindset, you need to work on your mental fitness,” she added.
Refine your network
Finally, she urged leaders to surround themselves with “game changers.” These are the peers, advisors, and mentors who offer proven roadmaps to success. By leveraging networks and external expertise, leaders can build confidence and achieve their goals.
Nancy closed with a call to action:
“Choose one of these three key strategies. Start today and show up as unstoppable business leaders for the sake of all Canadians.”
Leading through change
Canada’s economic future is uncertain, but business leaders have actionable strategies to navigate the challenges ahead. By understanding the data, planning for multiple scenarios, investing in productivity and mental fitness, and leveraging networks, leaders can position their organizations for resilience and growth.
To learn more, reach out to:
Insights
-
October 01, 2025
How can local governments implement effective cyber security and governance frameworks for AI?
A third of local governments report having no formal policies or guidelines for AI use. How can you govern AI use to mitigate cyber security risks?
-
Confidence
September 29, 2025
Performance improvement in AML regulatory compliance
With the introduction of Bill C-2 and FINTRAC’s amped up enforcement, reporting entities face sweeping changes to anti-money laundering (AML) compliance.
-
Agility
September 26, 2025
Paying attention to relationships as a foundation for governments to adapt in a shifting, uncertain world
How governments must build trust, adapt quickly, and deliver integrated solutions in a complex, uncertain world.
